Rusiya rublunun qiyməti: Azərbaycan manatına nisbətdə bugün və sabah (RUB/AZN)
Rus pulunun qiymeti: What is the Russian ruble exchange rate and how does it affect Azerbaijan?
The Russian ruble is the official currency of Russia, one of Azerbaijan's largest trading partners and neighbors. The exchange rate of the ruble determines how much Azerbaijani manat (AZN) can buy or sell in terms of Russian goods, services, investments, tourism, and remittances. Therefore, understanding the factors that influence the ruble exchange rate and its impact on Azerbaijan is crucial for both businesses and individuals.
rus pulunun qiymeti
In this article, we will explore the history and current situation of the ruble exchange rate, the economic and political factors that affect it, and how it affects Azerbaijan in terms of trade, investment, tourism, remittances, currency stability, and inflation. We will also provide some recommendations and suggestions for Azerbaijan to cope with the ruble exchange rate fluctuations.
Factors that influence the Russian ruble exchange rate
The exchange rate of any currency is determined by the supply and demand of that currency in relation to other currencies in the global market. The supply and demand are influenced by various factors, such as economic performance, political stability, market sentiment, speculation, etc. In this section, we will focus on two main categories of factors that influence the Russian ruble exchange rate: economic factors and political factors.
Economic factors are related to the strength and weakness of Russia's economy in terms of inflation, interest rates, trade balance, GDP, and oil prices. These factors affect both the supply and demand of the ruble in different ways.
Inflation: Inflation is the general increase in prices of goods and services over time. A high inflation rate means that the purchasing power of a currency decreases over time. This reduces the demand for that currency as people prefer to hold other currencies that retain their value better. It also increases the supply of that currency as people want to get rid of it before it loses more value. Therefore, a high inflation rate tends to depreciate a currency's exchange rate. According to , Russia's annual inflation rate was 6% in May 2021, which is above its target range of 4%.
Interest rates: Interest rates are the cost of borrowing or lending money. A high interest rate means that it is more expensive to borrow money and more profitable to save money. This increases the demand for a currency as people want to hold it to earn higher returns. It also reduces the supply of that currency as people want to borrow less of it to avoid paying higher interest. Therefore, a high interest rate tends to appreciate a currency's exchange rate. According to , Russia's key interest rate was 5.5% in June 2021, which is the highest level since April 2019. The bank has raised the rate three times this year to curb inflation and support the ruble.
Trade balance: Trade balance is the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. A positive trade balance means that a country exports more than it imports, while a negative trade balance means the opposite. A positive trade balance increases the demand for a currency as foreign buyers need to exchange their currencies for that currency to buy the country's exports. It also reduces the supply of that currency as the country needs to exchange less of its currency for other currencies to buy imports. Therefore, a positive trade balance tends to appreciate a currency's exchange rate. According to , Russia's trade surplus was $14.3 billion in April 2021, which is higher than the $9.4 billion in April 2020. Russia's main exports are oil, gas, metals, and chemicals, while its main imports are machinery, vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food.
GDP: GDP is the total value of goods and services produced by a country in a given period. It measures the size and growth of a country's economy. A high GDP means that a country has a strong and dynamic economy that can produce more goods and services and attract more investment and trade. This increases the demand for a currency as people want to participate in the country's economic activities. It also reduces the supply of that currency as the country needs to import less goods and services to meet its domestic demand. Therefore, a high GDP tends to appreciate a currency's exchange rate. According to , Russia's GDP was $1.46 trillion in 2020, which is lower than the $1.7 trillion in 2019. Russia's economy contracted by 3% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the decline in oil prices.
Oil prices: Oil prices are the market prices of crude oil, which is one of the most traded commodities in the world. Oil prices affect the ruble exchange rate because oil is Russia's main export and source of revenue. A high oil price means that Russia can earn more foreign currency from selling its oil, which increases the demand for the ruble. It also means that Russia can afford to import more goods and services, which reduces the supply of the ruble. Therefore, a high oil price tends to appreciate the ruble exchange rate. According to , the average spot price of Brent crude oil was $68.69 per barrel in May 2021, which is higher than the $29.39 per barrel in May 2020. Oil prices have recovered from their historic lows in 2020 due to the easing of lockdowns, the rollout of vaccines, and the production cuts by OPEC and its allies.
Political factors are related to the stability and uncertainty of Russia's political system and its relations with other countries. These factors affect both the supply and demand of the ruble in different ways.
Sanctions: Sanctions are economic or diplomatic measures imposed by one or more countries on another country to pressure it to change its behavior or policies. Sanctions can affect the ruble exchange rate by restricting Russia's access to foreign markets, capital, technology, and resources, which reduces the demand for the ruble. They can also force Russia to rely more on its domestic production and consumption, which increases the supply of the ruble. Therefore, sanctions tend to depreciate the ruble exchange rate. According to , the U.S. has imposed various sanctions on Russia since 2014 in response to its annexation of Crimea, its involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, its interference in the U.S. elections, its cyberattacks, its human rights violations, and its use of chemical weapons. The sanctions target individuals, entities, sectors, and transactions related to Russia's defense, energy, finance, intelligence, and technology industries.
Conflicts: Conflicts are violent or hostile actions between two or more parties over a dispute or a disagreement. Conflicts can affect the ruble exchange rate by creating uncertainty and instability in Russia's domestic and regional security, which reduces the confidence and trust in the ruble. They can also disrupt Russia's economic activities and trade relations with other countries, which reduces the demand for the ruble. Therefore, conflicts tend to depreciate the ruble exchange rate. According to , Russia is involved in several conflicts in its neighborhood and beyond, such as the ongoing war in Syria, the frozen conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, the tensions with NATO and the EU over Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and the Baltic states, and the rivalry with China and the U.S. over global influence and interests.
Elections: Elections are formal processes of choosing representatives or leaders by voting. Elections can affect the ruble exchange rate by creating expectations and uncertainty about the future direction and policies of Russia's government, which affects the sentiment and behavior of investors, traders, consumers, and businesses. They can also trigger protests or violence if the results are disputed or contested, which affects the stability and security of Russia's political system. Therefore, elections can appreciate or depreciate the ruble exchange rate depending on their outcome and impact. According to , Russia will hold parliamentary elections in September 2021, which will determine the composition of the State Duma (the lower house of parliament) for the next five years. The elections are expected to be dominated by the ruling United Russia party, which supports President Vladimir Putin, but they may also face challenges from opposition parties and candidates, such as Alexei Navalny's allies and supporters.
Foreign relations: Foreign relations are the interactions and relationships between countries on various issues and areas of cooperation or conflict. Foreign relations can affect the ruble exchange rate by influencing Russia's access to foreign markets, capital, technology, and resources, which affects the demand for the ruble. They can also influence Russia's participation in international organizations and agreements, which affects the credibility and reputation of the ruble. Therefore, foreign relations can appreciate or depreciate the ruble exchange rate depending on their nature and quality. According to , Russia's foreign policy is based on protecting its national interests and sovereignty, promoting a multipolar world order, strengthening regional integration and cooperation, enhancing dialogue and partnership with other countries, and addressing global challenges and threats.
How does the Russian ruble exchange rate affect Azerbaijan?
The Russian ruble exchange rate affects Azerbaijan in various ways because of their close economic and social ties. In this section, we will examine how it affects Azerbaijan in terms of trade and investment, tourism and remittances, c